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Friday, May 14, 2010
* My Sun-Times column points out some ominous poll numbers for Illinois Democrats in a formerly loyal demographic…
Back when John F. Kennedy was gearing up to run for president, the Teamsters Union local that my paternal grandfather organized for and belonged to sponsored an event for him. Both of my grandparents drove to Chicago to meet this young upstart.
As Grandma tells the story, Kennedy eventually approached my grandparents, put his arm around my grandmother, kissed her on the cheek and told my grandfather what a beautiful wife he had.
To this day, you’d better not say anything bad about JFK around Grandma, or she’ll tan your hide. I long ago learned to stay away from that topic.
I’ve been thinking a lot about my grandma lately. A series of strokes has required her to spend some time in a nursing home, although she’s back in her own home now. She’s also pretty much lost her interest in politics. “I guess I’ll leave that to others,” she said two years ago when I asked her how she planned to vote in the election.
Grandma is a lifelong Democrat, except in 1994 when she crossed over to vote for a local Republican. She said the candidate came to her door and asked for her vote, so he deserved her support.
I’ve told that story dozens of times to people who want to run for office. Nothing, but nothing, beats “touching voters” in campaigns. You have to get out there and work, knock on doors until your knuckles bleed, shake so many hands that you have to soak your own hands in ice every night. Successful candidates know that campaigns are a pain endurance test. No pain, no win.
But there is something else about Grandma’s 1994 vote. It came during the last national Republican landslide. I’ve always believed she was more amenable to voting for her first ever Republican because the Democrats did so poorly that year. The Republicans had the winning message.
And here we go again. Another Democratic president’s first midterm election, and the Democratic Party can’t seem to get it together. Like 1994, the party has become a pathetic collective punching bag for the fired-up Republicans.
Something ominous for Democrats is happening here among people near Grandma’s age. In 2006 and 2008, senior citizens voted for statewide Illinois Democrats by at least 10- point margins. This year, every statewide poll I’ve seen has the major Republican candidates winning by as many as 10 points.
The Medicare funding cut contained in the national health care bill has allowed Republicans to simultaneously decry “socialized medicine” while berating the Democrats for slashing care to the old folks. That socialism slam works a lot better with seniors, who clearly remember the Cold War. And it’s pretty easy to frighten them with any Medicare cuts (which is socialized medicine, but that’s another story). There may also be a racial thing involved to a point, or natural resistance to rapid and massive change, or the ever-increasing national debt, or the economic woes faced by their children and grandchildren. It’s probably a whole lot of stuff.
Grandma likely won’t be voting this November, but seniors as a whole tend to vote in far higher numbers than any other group. If the Democrats don’t quickly figure out a way to get senior citizens back on their side, then their party is in for a world of hurt this fall.
So far, I haven’t really seen any Democratic attempts here to connect with them. That’s a mistake they will live to regret. All the door-knocking and hand-shaking in the world won’t save the Democrats if they can’t even win over one of their most reliable bases of support.
* Meanwhile, Edjuan Payne made news last December when it was discovered that he was released from prison early under the secret and controversial MGT Push program at the Department of Corrections…
Edjuan Payne, 39, sentenced to 2 years for criminal damage to property, previously convicted of murder and drug manufacturing or delivery; spent just over 6 months in Winnebago County Jail and 14 days at Stateville. Total sentence: Six months, three weeks
Payne was just arrested for another murder by Peoria police. Not good.
* And Bill Brady got some good local press this week for a campaign stop in Aurora Township…
Gubernatorial candidate Bill Brady plans to make serious cuts — cuts that some 200 Fox Valley supporters are gladly applauding.
On Thursday, Brady told those attending the annual Aurora Township Republicans Lincoln Day Reception that he plans to reduce the tax burden in Illinois by eliminating the gasoline sales tax and the estate penalty tax and ending the pension system.
“If we eliminate the sales tax on gasoline and make the sales tax more competitive, fewer people will drive to Indiana, Missouri and Wisconsin. When they do that, they also purchase their bread, and their beverages and maybe their cigarettes. … We’ll drive more revenues by making our state more competitive,” he said to guests at the Paramount Theatre in downtown Aurora.
George Ryan used to say that his worst policy mistake as governor was listening to the petroleum marketers’ advice and cutting the sales tax on gasoline during a major rise. It was tough to notice the cut at the pump and it didn’t drive up sales tax receipts on other items, as had been predicted. Instead, it blew a big hole in Ryan’s budget when he could least afford it. The sales tax was restored.
I’m not sure that I’ve ever heard Brady say that he would “end” the pension system, but the story said so and his quote implied it…
Brady also called for a “giant step, not a baby step” to also retire the pension system in Illinois and “do what the private sector does,” adding that his own business offers 401(k) plans to employees who wish to contribute.
- posted by Rich Miller
67 Comments »
- OneMan - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 8:37 am:
The Aurora Township Lincoln Day event was last night. Never heard him speak live before last night, he does a decent job on the stump. I think he comes across much better than quinn.
- He Makes Ryan Look Like a Saint - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 8:54 am:
Maybe I am wrong, but lets say the state had used a 401 k system. Where would they “borrow” from during hard times?
- Vole - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 8:59 am:
Brady is determined to get us to the bottom instead of getting to the bottom of the problems. It is almost guaranteed that any gains in revenue resulting from tax cuts would never equal the losses in revenue from those cuts. Supply side is a proven policy failure.
Let us face it: The only thing that is going to increase revenues is a major national/global uptick in economic activity that significantly increases employment, housing sales, construction, etc. Brady or Quinn will be lucky to enjoy the ride should that happen.
- CircularFiringSquad - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 9:01 am:
“Brady also called for a “giant step, not a baby step” to also retire the pension system in Illinois and “do what the private sector does,” adding that his own business offers 401(k) plans to employees who wish to contribute.”
Nothing drives Seniors back to Ds quicker than NoaxBill abolishing pensions…Yeah that night in Aurora was Teeeeeerific!
- wordslinger - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 9:12 am:
In a perverse and unexpected way, the stock market crash of 2008 probably benefitted the GOP brand with seniors; they’re not talking about privatizing Social Security anymore, even though the market’s back up.
About the only thing Dems have going right now is that it’s May, not November. They need an economic B-12 shot or it could be katie bar the door.
Eliminate the sales tax on gas? That’s worse pandering than free rides for seniors in this fiscal environment. But man, it plays like getting ice cream without eating your vegetables.
Under any program, for any reason, how did this Payne get out of prison early? I saw the Dem. gov. of Montana on TV the other night; he said the duty of state government is to educate, medicate and incarcerate. Fail at any of those at your peril.
- VanillaMan - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 9:22 am:
First off, ignor Vole. Vole doesn’t know what he is talking about. I can’t even believe what I read. Please read some economics.
Back to the issue - Obamacare was a political disaster with seniors. For decades, they have been watching their benefits. For ten years, they have been complaining about the Federal Government taking SS funds and other funds they imagine are sitting in Fort Knox until they get their checks cut. Yeah - we know it really doesn’t work like that, but this is what they were sold back in their days, and they bought it, and are demanding this kind of safety net. Remember Gore’s “lock-box”? This issue isn’t new and Obamacare blew it wide open.
So when Obamacare was passed, it was not only passed over a majority of voters who opposed it, and still oppose it - polls demonstrated that senior clearly jumped from the Democratic ship. Anyone who needs their traditional senior voting base, has to have a new plan to get their votes in November. Seniors aren’t voting Democratic this November, at the rate we are now seeing - which is a first in many ways.
Worse, Democrats have ignored the protests against Obamacare. See those Tea Parties? Full of Seniors! Mayberry’s Aunt Bea is PO’ed! So, this doesn’t look good for Democrats.
- OneMan - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 9:27 am:
Nothing drives Seniors back to Ds quicker than NoaxBill abolishing pensions…
Ummm No, you really think seniors in this state who are seeing services go away are going to worry about other peoples pensions?
- wordslinger - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 9:27 am:
Any recommended reading, VMan? Enlighten us all. And be sure to point out specifically and with real-world examples where Vole is wrong.
- Joe from Joliet - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 9:38 am:
Word trying his Chris Matthews imitation. Yep, about as effective.
- Steve-O - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 9:39 am:
Brady can’t take us to the bottom…we’re already there. We’re ranked 46th in being friendly towards business. We were ranked 46th last year. We’re 48th in job creation over the last 10 years and over the last 10 years.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, yet expecting different results. We’ve tried the tax and spend and borrow plan for far too long. How’s that working out for us?
- VanillaMan - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 9:44 am:
Enlighten us all.
I don’t have to do that. Anyone who has lived over the past twenty five years during the biggest economic boom in history have witnessed this. There isn’t a small group of economic books detailing this, there are thousands. So don’t pretend that just because I no longer live on the reservation with economic dimwits that I am the dimwit.
I was taught Keynesian crap in two languages. I had to learn it to pass my classes. So I know both sides, and I know, just as everyone else knows, which works in the real world. Anyone claiming that supply side economics doesn’t work is willfully blind. It is an excellent economic model applicable to many public institutions, and definately preferable to the failed Keynesian model.
- wordslinger - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 9:46 am:
One book, one example?
- Ahoy - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 9:56 am:
Brady = Crazy
How is he going to fund roads? Or will all this money just magically appear when he’s governor?
- Pot calling kettle - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 9:56 am:
Going to a 401(k) won’t save the state a dime, it will cost more. The state will be in the position of having to pay 6% to Social Security, and whatever they agree to pay as the employer’s share of the 401(k). And, the feds won’t take an IOU.
- Vole - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 10:00 am:
“Anyone claiming that supply side economics doesn’t work is willfully blind.”
Tell me how well this resulted in a net increase in tax revenue following the Bush tax cuts.
- Chad - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 10:02 am:
Eliminating or significantly trimming defined benefit pensions for government employees will not have a big impact on non-government retired seniors, who have grown to resent state pension abuses. Frankly, current and retired state employees know they are relatively safe from cuts, but have come to greatly resent delayed payments to medical providers. The State is now over 200 days behind in paying hospitals and doctors, and several of these providers have either cut-off state employees/retirees or are requiring 100% full payment up-front. The retiree/employee is stuck waiting for the provider to eventually get paid by the state, and further waiting for the provider to send them their cash. That anger will be held against Quinn.
- Ghost - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 10:03 am:
The State pension plan is not a problem or undue expense, it is the States taking and diverting those funds which has created a problem.
governments cannot do 401(k’s), but that aside, if you do a 401k, but pocket the money instead of depositing it, then the 401k pension system will fail as well.
- dave - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 10:07 am:
you really think seniors in this state who are seeing services go away are going to worry about other peoples pensions?
Well, being that Brady wants to cut the budget by 10% across the board, that will mean many senior programs will have to be cut by MORE than 10% due to the fact that there are many programs that can’t legally be cut.
So that means that Brady wants to both “retire” the current pension system AND he wants to slash programs for seniors.
- Tom Joad - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 10:21 am:
After the 6 month sales tax removal for gasoline, the Petroleum tried to make it permanent. When the House didn’t call the bill for a vote, the gas stations put stickers on each of their pumps telling the customer that the House wanted to raise your gas prices. This was even though the price of gas was back where it was 6 months before. So there was no credit given to the legislators voting to remove the sales tax and no proof that it raised revenue to the state-which is Brady’s claim.
- Going nuclear - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 10:23 am:
Yes, many seniors are wary of the health care overhaul. There will be losers, with cuts to Medicare payments to hospitals, insurance plans and other service providers. However, there will be benefits for seniors in traditional Medicare programs. Prescription coverage will also improve over time.
Health care reform is a mixed bag, and some Democrats no doubt will suffer at the polls in November. However, many healthcare economists believe the overhaul will put Medicare in a stronger position in the long run.
- VanillaMan - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 10:24 am:
One book, one example?
Ever heard of Milton Friedman? He won a Nobel Prize for his work regarding Supply Side Economics. You may choose any one of his books. One? OK - how about his Capitalism and Freedom, an oldie but goodie that twenty years after it was published, (but was shunned by the NYT and academia for twenty years), became law under Reagan, Bush and Clinton?
Friedman was from right down the street at the University of Chicago. We have a great history there proving Supply Side Economics. Geez! This is like telling someone from Colorado that there really mountains on the horizon! Get out much?
For the past freakin’ 25 years we’ve been seeing Supply Side Economics bringing in 25 years of historic economic growth - biggest ever!
I was taught Keynesian crap. I learned it. It never worked. It failed 35 years ago. We moved on. Read some economics post circa 2000. No one is claiming that Supply Side Economics doesn’t work, because it obviously does.
Want more titles? Google ‘em.
- dupage dan - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 10:32 am:
If you don’t do a 10% cut across the board but more carefully prune more from some as you leave others less harmed aren’t you going to tick off those who have lost more? The cuts have to come from somewhere, folks! Some constituency is going to lose out. Simple math.
For those folk who believe that supply side economics doesn’t work or that tax cuts do not increase revenue you can rely on a true believer, JFK, a liberal democrat who lowered taxes in the early 60’s which led to increased revenue. It has happened so many times that all should know it. I’m sure you’all can google a bunch of books on the subject - you don’t need VM’s reading list to find ‘em.
While it’s true that the reason why the pension fund is in trouble is that the state has failed to keep its’ end of the bargain, and that 401Ks are sensitive to market fluctuations it is reality that most companies do not rely on pensions anymore. Why is that? Because defined pension programs promise a fixed rate of return while 401Ks, etc, are tied to a market that goes up and down. That is reality, folks! If you promise people what you can’t afford to pay you will go bankrupt. There are no guarantees - bad things happen to good people. If the market drops we have to tighten our belts. No pension fairy will be there in perpetuity to bail you out. Better to get a reduced return on a 401K than nothing from a bankrupt, empty pension fund.
- VanillaMan - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 10:33 am:
Back to the topic -
We’ve been getting even more bad news regarding Obamacare recently. It is going to take at least $100-200 Billion more just to set up all the administrative features.This comes on top of the fact that 66% of all Americans polled before Obamacare passed, believed that their health costs will increase, their quality of health care will go down, and that there will be health care rationing. So, when we see this kind of news - on top of - this strong foundation of cynicism regarding Obamacare, this turns voters the wrong way.
We were supposed to see support for Obamacare grow, not opposition to Obamacare. We have over half of the state governments, (32 as of today), now signed on to sue the Federal Government to find Obamacare unconstitutional.
I really don’t know what these people were thinking, jamming this POS down everyone’s throat right before Midterms. A miracle? Well, we no longer live in the Age of Miracles, and banking on seniors suddenly finding the Democrat’s positions on Obamacare attractive, is going to take a huge miracle at this point.
The polls have shown this thing opposed consistently at 20% against it. For over a year. Six months of political campaigning isn’t going to turn this around.
Like Rich says, we have to get out there and shake hands and campaign like a newby, sell ourselves as newbies, and do everything we can to remain in office because the long knives are definately out this November. The hands holding those knives are wrinkled and covered with age spots.
- dupage dan - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 10:35 am:
My favorite Friedman book is “Free to Choose”.
Economics 101, folks!
- dupage dan - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 10:37 am:
Seniors vote, people. And. They. Are. Mad.
- VanillaMan - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 10:38 am:
Brady’s “baby steps” regarding pensions is like his position regarding job growth - a plan that requires a generation before seeing any benefits. As a Republican, that is the kind of promises they make. Instead of borrowing against the future and handing out the cash, Republicans are stuck banking on the future, and hoping everyone is going to wait for it. Politically, it isn’t very attractive to voters who are used to getting stuff now - on their grandchildren’s credit.
- How Ironic - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 10:40 am:
I took up VMan and Googled “Supply Side Economics Failure”. I’m sorry I wasn’t able to post all 2,600,000 hits. Here are a few of the highlights:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/12/13/72111/695
“Reagan started the implementation in 1981, cutting upper-income taxes from roughly 70% to 50%. But a funny thing happened. Tax revenues were stagnant for 4 years from 1981 to 1984. For the years 1981-1984, revenues from individual taxpayers were (in billions) $285, $297, $288 and $298, (click on historical budget data) respectively. While the double-dip recession is partially responsible for the first two years, the economy came out of the recession November 1982. Yet for two more years, the rich didn’t feel unencumbered enough to increase their work efforts. ”http://socyberty.com/economics/supply-side-economics-failure/
”
The myth of Reagan is widely believed by the right, but what they fail to remember is that Reagan cut taxes for the oligarchy so significantly (from 77% to 28%) his first year that he had to in turn raise taxes on the middle class and cut social spending over the rest of his two terms to balance the budget. Conservatives either are ignorant to or ignore that fact that Reagan introduced the Tax Equity & Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982, which was the largest tax hike in US history. He then proceeded with a series of tax hikes over the next few year. Lucky number 13 to be exact. Even Bush 41 had to raise taxes after his election after promising “NO NEW TAXES”. ”http://searchwarp.com/swa260377.htm
“A common misconception regarding tax cuts is that if government revenues increase after tax cuts, it must be that the tax-cuts were the reason. The question you would have to ask is, what would revenues have been if there had been NO tax-cuts. This, of course, is a debatable issue because it is difficult to prove.”So VM. What say you?
- Irish - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 11:00 am:
I wish Brady would make up his mind. I would say that the Dems are in trouble this fall except that the Repubs can’t come up with a consistent answer to the economic issues. I think Brady would be better served by not talking and letting Quinn self destruct.
No one can fix the current fiscal crisis with cuts only. The worst thing that can be done is to cut the gasoline tax. Brady needs to actually sit down and take a crash course in Illinois economics and then come out with a consistent plan of some cuts, some revenue increases, and a real change to how certain things are funded in Illinois.(A reduction of the powers of CMS would be a real start. an example :There are guidelines being considered that are asked for by CMS that would require public hearings on every expenditure. Dollar amounts have not been given. The added cost this will add to doing business is counter productive at this time.)
If Brady can move a little to the middle and present a consistent real plan it would be a no brainer and PQ could retire and open a shoe store selling only those plastic sandals with the two straps. He could call it Pat’s Flip Flops.
- just sayin' - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 11:17 am:
It’s hard for me to have a lot of confidence in Brady’s ability to fix anything economic when his business is so unsucessful its losses even wipe out the tax obligations on his seperate state salary.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 11:21 am:
1. Democrats will be talking about nursing home reform non-stop.
2. The greatest economic growth in most of our lifetimes came after Bill Clinton raised taxes to balance the budget.
3. I don’t know that eliminating pensions will play against Brady, but I do know that proposing to cut funding for elder abuse prevention, programs that help seniors stay in their homes, and a host of other programs across the board will hurt him. Especially when he’s not paying taxes.
- Anon - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 11:22 am:
Yeah but his buisines is still here can Alexi say that.
- countryboy - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 11:24 am:
I really wish the public would put the heat where it belongs. When the GA short-changes the pension systems, the image is one of creating risk for public employees, and the anecdotal justification is outsized pension payments following outsized salaries, sweeteners, underperforming employees, etc. In reality, the folks being “had” by the GA’s inability to do their job, is the taxpaying public. Their obligations grow, because trust funds at half full only earn half their potential. The culprit is the GA, not the provider of public services, and the victim is the taxpayer, and shouldn’t be the worker bees of the public sector. We’re ALL being had by folks in the GA we don’t hold accountable. The systems are sustainable, its the GA performance that isn’t…
- dupage dan - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 11:27 am:
Anon,
Does “non sequitor” have any meaning for you? Comparing Brady’s gubernatorial campaign to Alexi’s Senatorial campairn is just silly.
Just sayin’ is no less silly for making his inane comment. Ever hear of business cycles? Do you think the economy is plannable and predictable? Only if you’re talking about the next “5 year plan”. Predictably a failure every single time.
- Fed up. - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 11:27 am:
The only thing that a Brady win does to hurt the pensions is let Quinn start stealing money from the pension fund for the last 8 years where he ran the state into the ground.
- siriusly - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 11:29 am:
“Brady also called for a “giant step, not a baby step” to also retire the pension system in Illinois and “do what the private sector does,” adding that his own business offers 401(k) plans to employees who wish to contribute.”
Interesting. The other day when you reported Brady’s new softer stand on benefits to partners of gay state employees he said something about being a realist and working together with the people who work for the state. I’m pretty sure that his new plan to flat out eliminate all pensions is not in alignment with that “new Brady”.
Aurora is 80 miles from Wisconsin and 70 miles from Indiana. None of those people are driving over state lines for cheaper gas. Good talking point, perhaps wrong venue.
- Steve-O - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 11:37 am:
=2. The greatest economic growth in most of our lifetimes came after Bill Clinton raised taxes to balance the budget.=
Two words: Tech bubble
When are people going to realize that we haven’t really experienced any significant economic growth over the past 20 years? The economy was artificially inflated with the tech bubble in the 90s, and then the housing bubble of the 00s.
When are democrats going to admit that we need steep, painful cuts? We’ve lived too high off the hog for too long, and allowed a corrupt one party system ruin this state over the past 8 years. Time for some painful changes. But only painful in the short run. Brady just needs to keep consulting with Mitch Daniels.
- Steve-O - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 11:40 am:
=Aurora is 80 miles from Wisconsin and 70 miles from Indiana. None of those people are driving over state lines for cheaper gas. Good talking point, perhaps wrong venue.=
Maybe not in Aurora, but definitely in places where it’s more convenient. Many of us in the Metro East buy our gas, booze and cigs across the river in Missouri. So do the truckers passing through on I-70, 55 & 64. I haven’t bought gas here in Illinois in over 6 years.
- just sayin' - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 11:45 am:
“Ever hear of business cycles?”
That same excuse could of course be used by Quinn and all the Dems w/r to the state’s budget problems.
One thing that’s not impacted by any business cycle: the big state salary we always have to pay Senator Brady. And sometimes he hasn’t even kicked in anything towards it. But no matter how bad the economy gets, the rest of us poor suckers have to keep him stocked with a couple of houses and a Porsche.
Yes, Bill Brady really knows the pain of the average Illinoisan.
- 47th Ward - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 11:48 am:
===First off, ignor Vole. Vole doesn’t know what he is talking about. I can’t even believe what I read. Please read some economics.===
VM, start your own blog if you want to set the rules. What a stupid thing to say.
===Back to the topic===
The topic was seniors. Again, if you want to hijack the thread to bash Obama’s healthcare plan, you really should start your own blog.
Your whining is tiresome.
- Pot calling kettle - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 11:53 am:
A defined contribution plan is not going to save the state budget. #1 The state will actually have to make a contribution up front to go into the brokerage account. (SURS already has this as its “self-managed plan”) #2 The employees will probably want back into Social Security which, as mentioned above, will also require an up front contribution.
The state cannot afford these up-front payments.
- Vole - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 11:55 am:
“I haven’t bought gas here in Illinois in over 6 years.”
A Brady kind of guy.
- VanillaMan - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 11:59 am:
The topic is the concern Democrats should have with senior voters. A big reason is the recent passage of Obamacare. I am pointing out the facts as reported by the news. I am opinionating based on the fact that we could see this happening a year ago, but nothing has been done to mend the breaches between the party and their traditional base. Whether or not Obamacare is good or bad isn’t the point - it was bad political timing and it is not panning out politically either - at least not yet.
If I am bashing Obamacare on this thread, it is in response to the political costs of it concerning seniors, so it is not a hijacking, and it is appropriate.
If you take a look at what I wrote on another post today, you will see that I do agree with Vole there. My comment was worded strongly, but I know Vole is strong enough to take it and give it back just as well, as you can see. He’s pretty cool. Neither one of us whines, either.
- dupage dan - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 12:01 pm:
Pot - if you are right then we are doomed. The state is so far behind in pension payments and keep kicking the can down the road with borrowing (!?!?). I doubt very much any citizens/voters in this state will agree to their taxes to be raised to cover the enormous gap. There will be a catastrophe of homeric proportions when that bill comes due. No escaping it.
The state can’t afford that either. Now what?
47th ward,
=The Medicare funding cut contained in the national health care bill has allowed Republicans to simultaneously decry “socialized medicine” while berating the Democrats for slashing care to the old folks. =
The national healthcare bill is commonly called “Obamacare”, isn’t it? That is the topic of this stream, isn’t it?
- Pot calling kettle - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 12:06 pm:
I’m happy to see that supply side is alive and well. However, there is a limit to how low you can cut taxes and receive more revenue (just as there is a limit to how much you can increase taxes and still increase revenue). Illinois’ income tax rate is lower than most (if not all) of our neighbors. Illinois’ budget situation is such that it will have to raise taxes at some point (at least temporarily) to pay off its debt load. The current uncertainty of the situation is more of a red flag to businesses than a plan that included a tax increase would be.
While I understand the political realities of using the “golden pensions” of state employees to attract votes, the reality is that the state’s portion is essentially the same as it would be if it only paid into Social Security. Over the past 40 years, employees have paid their share (around 9%), but the state has not paid its share.
Bill Brady pays into his employees’ 401(k) AND he pays into Social Security. Imagine if it turned out he hadn’t paid his share into either of those. He would not be running for Governor; he might be in jail. Certainly, no one would recommend that he should just forget about paying because it was too expensive.
The State must raise taxes to meet the obligations it has already made and to pay for the services that have already been rendered based on those obligations.
- 47th Ward - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 12:11 pm:
DuPage Dan,
You and VanillaMan are free to focus on one paragraph in Rich’s column and extrapolate that to a national political issue. However, the point of Rich’s column, and thus this thread, was mostly about Illinois Democrats and their prospects with senior voters this year.
But feel free to bash Obama anyway. That’s what makes this blog so fun for you guys, right?
- Cook County Commoner - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 12:11 pm:
I am a senior, and whoever comes courting my vote had better talk long and hard about real estate taxes. I reside in Skokie, and I want to be carried out of my home there when my time comes. The largest single fiscal roadblock to my plan is real estate taxes, which are out of control. I once was a proponent of public education, but now this institution is a pension plan masquerading as a school system. Why parents with the means can shift their childrens’ educational expenses to me remains a mystery. I understand the state constitution mandates this result, so change it. But there comes a time in your life when you feel your vulnerability, and high minded ideas melt away in favor of more selfish, short term concerns.
Rich Miller hit the nail on the head warning politicians to watch out for my demographic. But touching the flesh will not be enough. I don’t want them putting money in my pocket. I want them to tell me what they are going to do so I can hold onto more of my own money.
- Reformer - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 12:22 pm:
In the face of a $13 billion budget deficit, Brady’s plan is to reduce state revenues further than the recession already has by cutting two taxes. Incredible.
Brady’s position on pensions is almost as stupid. If he wants to create a 401(k) for all current and new employeees, he apparently doesn’t realize that would obligate the State to start paying into Social Security for all employees, 4 of 5 of whom are not currently covered. Between that Soc. Sec payment and the higher costs of administering a 401(k), the state wouldn’t save anything.
- VanillaMan - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 12:23 pm:
You are being sensitive, Mr. 47th Ward. President Obama is our native son. I am also aware that Mr. Rich Miller focuses on state issues, not national. As long as this focus remains, I have no interest in bashing our President, should I actually have an interest in doing so.
I once was a proponent of public education, but now this institution is a pension plan masquerading as a school system. This insightful statement is full of a wisdom and experience often lacking in our school administrations. Very well said!
- 47th Ward - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 12:34 pm:
VM, in many ways this blog is like my favorite tavern. Rich is the best bartender in town, and the crowd at the bar loves politics as much as I do. We sit and talk for hours, day after day, and then head home.
We can agree, and laugh, and share stories. And we can disagree, and fight and call each other names. Rich steps in from time to time without taking sides, like any good bartender will, and he tells us when to take it outside.
The only thing missing is the booze, which is probably a good thing because some of your comments make me want to drag your sorry butt off your barstool and give you an old-fashioned smack down. Rhetorically speaking of course.
Truth be told, as much as I disagree with you, this place wouldn’t be the same without you.
Cheers.
- dupage dan - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 12:42 pm:
47th Ward,
What makes this blog so fun is not so much the bashing but the intense back and forth. It is likely I won’t agree with you much but hope I can do so forcefully yet without gratuitous bashing.
We could have beers together in seperate bars. I’ll toast you next time.
- Retired Non-Union Guy - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 1:06 pm:
Cook County Commoner … I have a relative who lives in Georgia and once the property owner is a senior, they effectively no longer pay the school portion of the property tax based on the theory they have already done their part. (The actual rules vary by county and not every county participates, but there is also a state-wide $10,000 exemption. Of course, their tax structure is different from Illinois.)
Even though it would be a huge hole in the school district’s budgets, maybe all of us old guys should start a petition to put that to a vote here in Illinois?
- Pot calling kettle - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 1:35 pm:
==Even though it would be a huge hole in the school district’s budgets, maybe all of us old guys should start a petition to put that to a vote here in Illinois?==
Then, perhaps after they graduate, none of their taxes should be used to pay for medicare and Soc. Sec.
As a society, we need to be more willing to support the important societal structures that made this country what it is.
- Pot calling kettle - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 1:39 pm:
BTW, I live in a small town where property taxes provide over 80% of the school’s revenue. The senior citizens support this because they know that without the school, the town would not exist. They know the importance of a good education and place value on that for the community of which they are a part. They also feel a close tie to the school where most of them were educated and their children were educated.
- Area 2 - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 1:44 pm:
Rich…nice article — I enjoyed it. Its been one of your more thoughtful articles published to date. Perhaps, MJM, PJQ, BHO, DMA and RIE should follow your recommendations/warnings.
- Bill - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 1:58 pm:
It seems like open season on Vannie today. He does have a way of getting on peoples’ last nerve. I usually only read the first 10 paragraphs in a Vannie post and then wait for Word and 47 to take him to task. Anyway it is all in good fun and if you take this stuff too seriously you’ll go crazy.
- VanillaMan - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 1:58 pm:
The senior citizens support this because they know that without the school, the town would not exist.
There will always be a need for schools, regardless of how they are funded. Instead of telling interested home buyers about how good the schools are, real estate salespeople would tout how low the taxes are - enough to afford private schools of their choice.
- Bill - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 2:03 pm:
==how low the taxes are - enough to afford private schools of their choice.==
That sounds like Chicago!
- VanillaMan - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 2:05 pm:
It seems like open season on Vannie today.
I depend upon each of you to keep me sharp. Whenever I write nonsense, it is your job to put me back on track. If you do not like what I write - it is entirely your own fault. You have either failed to educate me correctly, or you have failed to present your argument in a way to show me the way.
I am completely open-minded and innocent without a single prejudice within my being. Bill will vouch for that.
- Michelle Flaherty - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 2:12 pm:
How about having seniors start paying for those great and increasingly expensive services by taxing their retirement income? No it won’t happen, but all those drug programs and other senior freebies they saddle the working class with are all mini timebombs waiting to explode and hit future generations with massive tax hikes when the great swarm of deadbeat babyboomers all retire and rush for the entitlement teat.
And we think we’ve got problems now …
- JonShibleyFan - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 2:13 pm:
“I usually only read the first 10 paragraphs in a Vannie post”
LOL
- Pot calling kettle - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 2:28 pm:
==enough to afford private schools of their choice.==
LOL, your lack of familiarity with small towns downstate is amusing.
As I wrote, “small town” If there is no school, there is no small town (we’re talking well under 1000 people). In downstate Illinois, the school often anchors these towns. If the schools consolidate and the building in a town closes, the people move elsewhere. As a property owner in such a town, you would find that if the school closes, the property value will usually tank as people move out of the town. (And the nearest private school is probably at least 20 miles away and is operated by a religious group.)
- VanillaMan - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 2:32 pm:
I didn’t say that this is something I would say, silly!
- How Ironic - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 2:53 pm:
Maybe VMan could sum up his position via some song lyrics. Those are usually the best.
- Pot calling kettle - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 2:53 pm:
==I didn’t say that this is something I would say, silly!==
Are you channeling Bill Brady today?
- Irish - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 2:57 pm:
Most of the subjects discussed in this thread have everything to do with the topic since they all affect seniors. The Dems in power in this state have done everything they could to make it most difficult on the seniors with their fixed incomes.
Failing to properly fund the school systems will inevitably cause a raise in local property taxes. High property taxes very much affect the retired folks who still have to pay them in spite of their incomes not increasing.
The reduction of funds for communitites will also result in higher local taxes.
Failing to fund the programs that many seniors utilize will further that hardship.
Yes the pension system has not been properly funded in many years by Dems and Repubs. But that is on all of us for not raising a fuss when those payments were not being made and the money was being used for other things/programs that may have benefited us. So even though the Dems have not done anything to fix that issue and have recently dipped even further to those funds the Repubs were right there with them.
The bottomline is we are not going to escape higher taxes at some level. The real remedy is to find out how those taxes can be spread out over the most people so the individual share is smallest.
In conjunction with those increased revenues we also have to levy them in a way that it does not hurt business growth, creation of jobs, and ber equally fair to all by making sure that the loopholes are closed for the richest so they cannot opt out of paying their fair share. Attracting business growth has a lot to do with good infrastructure, good schools, and a good quality of life. All of these require dollars to accomplish. If you are not going to fund them then don’t whine about losing and not gaining jobs.
Finally I travel quite a bit in Wisconsin and find that gas is most always cheaper in Illinois than it is in Wisconsin, except for the town of Stoughten, where a little ol Road Ranger station keeps all of the stations in that area pretty low in price. Cigarettes are also higher than I pay in Illinois. However we have to get away from making cigarettes the Golden Goose of revenues or we have to get away from restricting smoking every place we can. Counting on and increasing those revenues and then doing everything we can do to restrict them is the most imbecilic program that has come along in a while.
- wordslinger - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 3:03 pm:
–There will always be a need for schools, regardless of how they are funded. Instead of telling interested home buyers about how good the schools are, real estate salespeople would tout how low the taxes are - enough to afford private schools of their choice.–
VMan, you’ve snatched the pebble. It’s time for you to meet your destiny.
Write up that business plan, hit the banks, find investors, hire the contractors and launch your unique vision of developing and selling residential real estate.
It sounds, crazy — but it just might work.
- dupage dan - Friday, May 14, 10 @ 3:35 pm:
I, too, travel to Wisconsin frequently, especially in the summer. My car, as well as Ms DuPage Dan’s car, sips diesel fuel. I find the price of diesel to be substantially lower in Wisc just across the border (Flying J, Racine) than it is only a few miles away. The gas prices are much lower, as well. The reason, I am told, is that Chicago area fuel supplies must meet certain low emissions requirements which are met using a proprietary blend of additives that only one refinery uses in their gasoline. Since only 1 refinery uses that blend, the supplier has no competition which results in higher prices. I fuel up at the border when coming home to avoid the higher prices in Illinois. With a differential of sometimes 30 cents a gallon it is hard to pass hp.
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Saturday, May 15, 2010
The Capitol Fax Blog » Dems ignore seniors at their peril
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