ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
It ain’t over until it’s over. That trite and shopworn cliché applies to both sports and politics. However, here’s a message to Chicagoans: The 2011 mayoral election is over.
The deal is done. The fix is in. Can you say “Mayor Rahm Emanuel”?
Sheriff Tom Dart, with a Southwest Side Irish base and wide name recognition, abruptly withdrew from the mayoral contest, claiming that the job would have caused him to be “less of a father.” What jibberish. The Chicago mayoralty is the epicenter of Illinois’ politics, the most powerful job in the state. Dart quit because he didn’t have the money, didn’t have the guts, or got a promise for some other post. It’s likely the latter.
For those inclined toward conspiracies, it could be conjectured that Dart aborted his bid so as to make way for Attorney General Lisa Madigan, who resides in the North Side 47th Ward, but whose powerful father, Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, is the Southwest Side 13th Ward Democratic committeeman. But Lisa Madigan has publicly disavowed a mayoral candidacy. If she joins the race after winning re-election on Nov. 2, it would smack of opportunism and deceitfulness.
According to Democratic party sources, here’s what is happening:
First, Emanuel, former Northwest Side 5th District congressman (2003-2008) and 2-year White House chief-of-staff, announced for mayor in early October. In less than a month, Emanuel raised a stunning $3.7 million, much coming from Hollywood (where his brother is a movie producer) and Jewish sources. He had $1.2 million remaining in his congressional campaign account, so he has $4.7 million on-hand.
Without question, Emanuel will raise another $3 million by Christmas, and will spend over $10 million on the contest. Dart could not match that fundraising prowess. Only Lisa Madigan, with her dad’s help, can raise a like amount.
Emanuel’s liberal voting record, and close tie to Obama, certainly does not ingratiate him to white ethnic voters on the city’s Northwest and Southwest sides. But he has enormous appeal to Jewish voters, as he would be Chicago’s first Jewish mayor, and to liberals along the Lakefront. To blacks, he is certainly the least unacceptable white contender, and an Obama endorsement in the April runoff would seal the deal.
is no doubt about this: Emanuel will be the boss, and brook no dissent.
Second, Dart demanded his quid pro quo – and will be rewarded. The sheriff covets the federal U.S. Attorney’s job, but the Obama Administration, with Rod Blagojevich’s re-trial scheduled for April 2011, can’t fire incumbent Patrick Fitzgerald. Democratic politicians desperately want a malleable Democrat as U.S. Attorney, so as to minimize their future exposure. Dart is their guy.
Rumors are rampant that Obama will appoint Cook County State’s Attorney Anita Alvarez to a federal judgeship. That clears the way for Dart to succeed her as the county’s chief prosecutor. Or, perchance, if Dart, who resides in the Southwest Side 19th Ward, wants to be “more of a father,” he could prevail upon Emanuel to persuade Obama to make him a federal judge, and work 9-to-5 hours.
If the Chicago mayoralty is off the table, Dart, a former state representative, surely lusts after Number Two – the Illinois governorship. Being a federal judge, U.S. Attorney or state’s attorney would be an excellent steppingstone to the governorship.
Third, with Dart out, Emanuel is a cinch to run first in the Feb. 22 non-partisan primary, and advance to the April 2 runoff. Against Dart, Emanuel would have competed for the city’s white vote, which is half the electorate. Now Emanuel faces competition for the white vote only from Alderman Ed Burke (14th), and, possibly, Lisa Madigan.
Already, the entire Northwest Side Democratic establishment has fallen into line behind Emanuel. He has the public support of Aldermen Dick Mell (33rd), Gene Schulter (47th), Pat Levar (45th), Pat O’Connor (40th) and Marge Laurino (39th), as well as committeemen Bill Banks (36th), Patti Jo Cullerton (38th) and Randy Barnette (39th), and State Representative John D’Amico (D-15). Levar’s wife was a congressional staffer for Emanuel.
Former state representatives Ralph Capparelli and Rich Bradley were running the Northwest Side’s Dart operation. “We had over 21,000 (nominating petition) signatures” for Dart, said Capparelli, who expressed disappointment over Dart’s withdrawal. “He (Dart) could have won,” said Capparelli.
Burke, age 66, who has served since 1968, has $6.2 million in his campaign account, could match Emanuel dollar-for-dollar, and co-opt much of the Southwest Side white vote.
In the 2008 election, 106,387 votes were cast in the 5 Southwest Side wards, and 224,884 were cast in the 10 Northwest Side wards.
There will be at least two Hispanic candidates: Chicago City Colleges board chairman Gery Chico, who lost the 2004 Democratic U.S. Senate primary to Obama; and appointed city Clerk Miguel del Valle. Chico is Mexican-American, and del Valle is Puerto Rican. The overall Hispanic vote will not exceed 12 percent. If both run, both lose.
And fourth, no Harold Washington-like candidate has emerged, capable of energizing blacks. Blacks comprise roughly 40 percent of the electorate, and three or more blacks will be running: State Senator James Meeks, pastor of the Salem Baptist Church, a social conservative; State Senator Rickey Hendon, who lost the 2010 Democratic lieutenant governor’s primary; and former U.S. Senator Carol Moseley Braun, who was defeated in 1998. Others include Board of Review Commissioner Larry Rogers Jr., and U.S. Representative Danny Davis.
All have flaws, and none is capable of electrifying and motivating blacks, as did Washington in 1983 and 1987. “Cross-over” is the key. What black is capable of attracting white votes? Answer: None.
Braun is a retread, but has especial appeal to black females. Meeks said he wouldn’t quit his church, which raises questions about church-state separation. His anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage stance has great appeal to black evangelicals. Rogers is unknown. Davis and Hendon are obnoxious, in-your-face, big-spending, pro-affirmative action liberals – the kind of black that ethnic whites detest.
The early presumption was that Dart and Emanuel would compete for the white vote, and Meeks and Braun for the black vote, with a white-versus-black runoff, and a white victor. Now, with Emanuel as the white frontrunner, and a fractured black field, the top black contender may not eclipse 15-18 percent. An early poll paid by black business leaders put Braun, due to her residual name identification, at 11 percent, and Meeks at 5 percent; Emanuel had 22 percent, and Dart 12 percent.
Clearly, half of Chicagoans have no clue as to whom they want as mayor. And Democratic politicians, especially blacks, are ambivalent. Here’s a rundown, based on prior performance:
Braun: In 1998, Braun carried Chicago over victorious Republican Peter Fitzgerald by 552,729-145,540. In the city’s black wards, Braun got 315,890 votes; in the white and Hispanic wards, she got 236,839. She lost the 41st and 45th wards, and narrowly carried other Northwest Side wards. That only proves that Braun can beat a white conservative Republican, which Rahm is not.
Hendon: In the 2010 Democratic primary for lieutenant governor, Hendon ran third, with 113,690 votes, with 68,233 (21.9 percent) in Chicago. Had West Sider Hendon not run, splitting the black vote, Art Turner would have been nominated. Hendon is much-reviled on the South Side.
Chico finished fourth in the 2004 primary, getting 53,433 votes (4.3 percent); Obama won with 655,923 votes (52.8 percent). In Chicago, Chico got 29,414 votes (6.4 percent). He had a bare plurality in the Hispanic wards, and averaged about 500 votes in the Northwest Side wards. Chico is going nowhere.
Emanuel: He won a hotly-contested congressional 2002 primary after Mayor Daley dispatched an army of city payrollers, led by now-convicted Don Tomczak, to the district. He beat Nancy Kasczak by 46,774-35,716 (50.5 percent), with six others running.
Despite backing from every Northwest Side Democratic committeeman, Emanuel carried the 36th Ward with 54.2 percent, the 38th Ward with 46.3 percent, the 39th Ward with 56.8 percent, the 40th Ward with 57.6 percent, the 41st Ward with 43.1 percent, the 45th Ward with 46.8 percent, and the 47th Ward with 49 percent. Clearly, there was voter resistance to Emanuel in 2002, and there will be similar resistance in 2011. As a pro-Obama liberal, Emanuel is a hard sell. But if the 2011 runoff is a choice between a pro-Obama white and a pro-Obama black, white voters will opt for the least obnoxious -- Emanuel.
My early prediction: Emanuel is the man to beat. Unless Lisa Madigan runs, Emanuel is the next mayor.
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